If you’re a poker player, you know that the game revolves around probability. Every decision you make at the table is based on the likelihood of certain events occurring, such as the probability of hitting a certain hand or the odds that your opponent is holding a particular card. In this article, we’ll take a deep dive into the odds for poker hands and explore how you can use probability to master the game.
What are the Odds of Getting Each Poker Hand?
Before we dive into the odds for each poker hand, let’s first review the ranking of hands in poker, from highest to lowest:
- Royal Flush
- Straight Flush
- Four of a Kind
- Full House
- Flush
- Straight
- Three of a Kind
- Two Pair
- One Pair
- High Card
Now, let’s take a look at the odds of getting each hand in a standard 52-card deck:
- Royal Flush: 1 in 649,740
- Straight Flush: 1 in 72,193
- Four of a Kind: 1 in 4,165
- Full House: 1 in 693
- Flush: 1 in 508
- Straight: 1 in 254
- Three of a Kind: 1 in 47
- Two Pair: 1 in 21
- One Pair: 1 in 2.6
- High Card: 1 in 2.1
As you can see, the odds of getting a Royal Flush are incredibly slim, while the odds of getting a High Card are relatively high. These odds should guide your decisions at the table, as you’ll want to play more aggressively when you have a stronger hand and more conservatively when you have a weaker one.
How to Calculate the Odds of Getting a Poker Hand
While the odds for each poker hand are fixed, you can calculate the odds of getting a certain hand based on the cards that are still in play. For example, if you have two hearts in your hand and there are two hearts on the flop, the odds of hitting a flush by the river are approximately 35%.
To calculate the odds of getting a specific hand, you’ll need to know a few things:
- The number of cards remaining in the deck
- The number of outs you have (i.e., the number of cards that will give you the hand you’re looking for)
- The number of cards that have already been revealed (i.e., the cards in your hand and on the board)
Once you have this information, you can use a simple formula to calculate the odds:
(Number of outs / Number of cards remaining in the deck) x 100 = Odds of hitting your hand
For example, let’s say you have two spades in your hand and there are two spades on the flop. There are 13 spades in the deck, and you’ve already seen four of them (your two cards and the two on the flop), so there are nine spades remaining. Therefore, the odds of hitting a flush on the turn or river are:
(9 / 47) x 100 = 19.1%
How to Use Probability to Make Better Decisions at the Poker Table
Now that you understand the odds for each poker hand and how to calculate your odds of hitting a particular hand, let’s talk about how you can use probability to make better decisions at the poker table.
One of the most important things to keep in mind is that you should always be thinking about your opponents’ range of hands. For example, if you’re facing a bet on the river and you have a weak hand, you’ll want to consider what hands your opponent could have that would make sense for them to bet. If the board is showing a potential straight or flush, you’ll want to be more cautious as your opponent may have hit one of those hands.
Another important factor to consider is pot odds. Pot odds are a ratio of the size of the bet to the size of the pot, and they help you determine whether it’s worth calling a bet based on the likelihood of hitting your hand. For example, if the pot is $100 and your opponent bets $20, you’ll be getting 5-to-1 pot odds. If the odds of hitting your hand are better than 5-to-1, it’s worth calling the bet.
It’s also important to keep in mind that probability is just one factor to consider at the poker table. You’ll also need to consider your opponents’ tendencies, your position at the table, and any other relevant factors before making a decision.
Common Poker Hand Scenarios and Their Odds
Let’s take a look at some common poker hand scenarios and their odds:
Flopping a Set
When you have a pocket pair and hit a third card of the same rank on the flop, you’ve flopped a set. The odds of flopping a set are approximately 12%.
Making a Straight or Flush with Two Suited Cards
When you have two suited cards and are looking to hit a flush or straight, the odds of hitting your hand by the river are approximately 35%.
Hitting a Set on the Turn or River
If you have a pocket pair and are looking to hit a set on the turn or river, the odds of hitting your hand are approximately 7.5%.
Hitting a Straight or Flush Draw on the Turn or River
If you have four cards to a straight or flush and are looking to hit your hand on the turn or river, the odds of hitting your hand are approximately 17%.
Drawing to an Inside Straight
When you have four cards to a straight but need a middle card to complete the hand, you’re drawing to an inside straight. The odds of hitting your hand on the turn or river are approximately 8%.
Conclusion
Understanding the odds for poker hands and how to calculate your odds of hitting a particular hand is crucial if you want to become a successful poker player. By using probability to guide your decisions at the table, you’ll be able to make better decisions and win more hands.
But remember, probability is just one factor to consider at the poker table. You’ll also need to consider your opponents’ tendencies, your position at the table, and any other relevant factors before making a decision.
So the next time you’re at the poker table, keep the odds for poker hands in mind and use probability to your advantage. Good luck!
FAQs
- What is the probability of getting a Royal Flush in poker?
- The probability of getting a Royal Flush in poker is approximately 1 in 649,740.
- What is pot odds in poker?
- Pot odds are a ratio of the size of the bet to the size of the pot, and they help you determine whether it’s worth calling a bet based on the likelihood of hitting your hand.
- How do you calculate your odds of hitting a particular poker hand?
- To calculate your odds of hitting a particular poker hand, you’ll need to know the number of cards remaining in the deck, the number of outs you have, and the number of cards that have already been revealed.
- What is the probability of hitting a flush with two suited cards in poker?
- The probability of hitting a flush with two suited cards in poker is approximately 35%.
- How can you use probability to make better decisions at the poker table?
- By using probability to guide your decisions at the poker table, you can make better decisions about when to call, raise, or fold. This can help you maximize your winnings and minimize your losses.
- How can I improve my understanding of poker probabilities?
- One way to improve your understanding of poker probabilities is to practice calculating your odds of hitting certain hands in different scenarios. You can also read books or watch videos on the subject to deepen your understanding.
Reference
- “Poker Probabilities” by Dave Childs (https://www.thatpokerstudy.com/poker-probabilities/)
- “Texas Hold’em Odds and Probabilities” by Matthew Hilger (https://www.pokerlistings.com/texas-holdem-odds-and-probabilities)
- “Poker Math: Every Decision is based on Pot Odds” by PokerListings.com (https://www.pokerlistings.com/strategy/poker-math-every-decision-based-on-pot-odds)
